Ottawa Round Table Part 4 – CanKor Brain Trust on the Current Situation in the DPRK

CanKor Brain Trust on the Current Situation in the DPRK

by Paul Evans, Victor Hsu, Hazel Smith, Hark Kroll, Jeremy Paltiel and Jack Kim

Ottawa Round Table on Humanitarian Aid in the Current North Korean Context, 5 March 2012

Q: What dangers and opportunities can you foresee in the evolving situation?

Paul Evans, Professor, Liu Institute for Global Issues; Director, Institute of Asian Research, UBC:

Why assume that the KJU era will be any different? My only glimpse into the fog is the signal from the group that attended the six-month training program here that it was business as usual for a second phase, with no changes expected. I had dinner with a DPRK diplomat in Bangkok as part of an ARF meeting and more or less out of the blue he asked me how the UBC training program had gone and how we could find ways to get more DPRK students to Canada in future. Really out of context and it may be that he only guessed at a connection and my interest by seeing my card. But…

Victor Hsu, Visiting Professor, School of Public Policy and Management , Korea Development Institute (KDI), Seoul:

From my perspective, assuming that ROK maintains its current attempt to reverse the LMB policy, opportunities are going to increase. I don’t believe there will be any continuation of refusal to provide humanitarian aid. Both main parties in ROK are framing renewed engagement, as is the USA. EU will follow suit.

Hazel Smith, Professor of Resilience and Security, Cranfield University, UK:

The DPRK government is far from unique in being culpable of poor governance and failing to meet the food needs of its people. Arguing that the DPRK humanitarian and food crises are unique is wrong in advocacy terms because it reinforces the politicisation of aid to the DPRK in its emphasis on the ‘exceptionally awful’ case of the DPRK.

The reasons for food shortages and economic failure in the DPRK are prosaic. Like very large numbers of governments, the DPRK government lacks oil (to generate revenue), suffered the withdrawal of external subsidies, has an obsolescent economic infrastructure in every respect, and is governed by a non-democratic, economically illiterate and inept government.

Ottawa Round Table Part 1 – Humanitarian Aid in the Current North Korean Context

Canadian Humanitarians at Round Table in Ottawa

Ottawa Round Table on Humanitarian Aid in the Current North Korean Context, 5 March 2012

During the two-week glimmer of hope between the US-DPRK “Leap Day Deal” and the subsequent announcement of North Korea’s satellite launch, a small but persistent group of Canadian humanitarians met in Canada’s capital on Monday, 5 March 2012, to discuss “Humanitarian Aid in the Current North Korean Context”.

The representatives of organizations still actively engaged in assistance to the people of North Korea harbored no illusions that the current transition in the DPRK leadership would melt away the difficulties involved in the provision of humanitarian aid. There was, however, a consensus that whatever the international climate may be at any particular time, engagement is a key to projecting Canadian values into the situation, whether by the government or by civil society. When Canadian government policy is engagement, this tends to support the work of Canadian NGOs, who in turn embody the best of Canada’s reputation for peace and human security. When government policy is non-engagement, the activities of NGOs nonetheless continue to further Canadian values, thus laying the groundwork for future engagement policies.

During the past several years, strategic, military and human rights issues in relation to North Korea have received a considerable amount of attention by Canada and the international community. By and large, humanitarian issues have taken the back seat. The humanitarian group assembled in Ottawa hoped that the plight of the North Korean people would not fall through the cracks. The long-term goal of peace and human security on the entire Korean Peninsula should remain the central focus of Canadian policies. Although the recent leadership change has not yet provided sufficient indicators of change, participants felt that this is an opportune time for Canadian re-engagement to benefit the North Korean people.

“Dual Disconnected Monologues”: NASA Expert James Oberg Visits DPRK Launch Site

[The following are two interviews with James Oberg, NBC "space consultant" and NASA Mission Control veteran. Both were conducted by Ed Flanagan, NBC News Producer, and published on World News on MSNBC.com. The first interview (Monday, 9 April 2012) carried the title NBC space expert on North Korea satellite launch: 'It's not a military missile ... but it's darn close', with the second (Wednesday, 11 April 2012) titled North Koreans desperate for Western approval of launch. --CanKor]

First Interview:

A close up view of North Korea’s Unha-3 rocket at the launch platform of the Tongchang-ri space center. (Photo by Pedro Ugarte, AFP - Getty Images)

When we learned that North Korea was planning on opening its tightly restricted Sohae Satellite Launching Center to foreign journalists for the first time, NBC News quickly decided we would need an expert eye to determine the accuracy and authenticity of Pyongyang’s claim that this latest rocket launch was for peaceful scientific purposes.

North Korea says it is planning to launch a weather observation satellite using a three-stage rocket during mid-April to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. But the United States and South Korea say it is a test of a ballistic missile.

So NBC News invited James Oberg, our “Space Consultant,” to accompany us into North Korea to view the Kwanggmyongsong-1 satellite.

With a 22-year career as a space engineer in support of NASA’s spaceflight operations, Oberg has the experience and technical expertise to determine the veracity of North Korea’s claims about this mission.

NBC sat down with Oberg after visiting the Sohae Satellite Launch Center on Sunday to get his initial impressions of the facility, the mysterious satellite and the future of North Korea’s space program.

Q:  What are your first impressions from this visit to Sohae?

A: It was just amazing to be there, and the impression was that someone in the North Korean government made a very courageous decision to let us in.

Mongolia’s View of the Current Situation of North Korea by R. Badamdamdin

[R. Badamdamdin is a former Member of Parliament in the People's Great Khural (Assembly) of Mongolia. He delivered this address to the International Leadership Conference of the Universal Peace Federation in Seoul, ROK, on Tuesday, 24 January 2012. --CanKor]

R, Badamdamdin

Frequent unexpected events on the Korean peninsula negatively impact the quest for stable development in northeast Asia. In easing such difficult circumstances, peaceful democratic countries in the region seek to maintain a relationship with the two Koreas, as trustful friends of the Korean people, through good communications. Mongolia is among these countries.

Mongolia has had good relations with North Korea since its founding in the 1940s. Even though the scale is not large, the relationship between the two countries has been friendly and close. In particular, as a result of efforts of non-governmental organizations, many types of exchanges such as business, individual, arts, culture, sports, and so forth, have been formed between the two nations.

The Mongolian government has expressed interest in developing a relationship between the two countries, and it has initiated several meetings for this purpose. Such state-level approaches characterize Mongolia’s support for North Korea.

It is very possible to develop mutually beneficial cooperation on various levels between the business sectors of the two countries. For instance, Mongolia has imported from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea workforce for mining, building infrastructure, urban development, and agriculture. Thanks to these laborers, Mongolia has been able to supplement its lack of construction workers. Mongolia’s agricultural sector, on the other hand, helps resolve the food issues of North Korea.

38 North: Developing the DPRK Through Agriculture by Randall Ireson

[From time to time CanKor alerts readers to papers published by our partner-site 38North. The following article is authored by CanKor Brain Trust member Randall Ireson , private consultant on rural and agricultural development issues. Please follow our link to this article on the 38North site. --CanKor]

Despite continuing food shortages in the DPRK, the 2012 New Year’s Joint Editorial and other statements related to the succession of Kim Jong Un suggest there will be no new approaches to revitalizing North Korean agriculture. The editorial labeled the food problem “a burning issue in building a thriving country,” [1] but allocated fewer than 150 words (of 5500) to that issue, only exhorting the masses to increase yields, implement crop rotations, and increase production of farm machinery and farm inputs.

Yet agriculture could lead a revival of the DPRK economy if appropriate policy changes were implemented. The technical means of improving farm production in the DPRK have been known for years. And if farms could use income earned from increased production to purchase improved machinery and other supplies needed for modern agriculture, a virtuous circle of investment in the farms plus support to small industry could lead to the modernization of both sectors. Government investment combined with some international assistance could stimulate sustainable increases in productivity and better incomes for workers on the farms and in related industries.

Political Tours: Visit North Korea with Professor Rudiger Frank

[How will North Korea change after Kim Jong Il's death and the rise of his son Kim Jong Un? Will changes become visible to the casual observer traveling to Pyongyang during celebration of the 100th anniversary of DPRK founder Kim Il Sung this coming April? The British organizers of  Political Tours will take a group of not-so-casual tourists to see for themselves. They will be accompanied by CanKor Brain Trust member and economist Rudiger Frank in what is sure to be a fascinating educational experience. Although exact details are still being worked out, CanKor encourages its readers to consider joining this unique opportunity at an especially critical period of North Korean history. To do so, please get in touch with us, or register through the Political Tours website. Make sure you let them know you heard about it from us. --CanKor]

Political Tours – North Korea Tour – April 2012

In the wake of Kim Jung Il’s death, and questions hanging over the country’s future direction, Political Tours is organizing a tour to North Korea this April. The visit is being led Professor Rudiger Frank, head of Korean studies at the University of Vienna, and one of the world’s leading experts on North Korea.

It also coincides with the 100th anniversary celebrations of the birth of the country’s founder Kim Il Sung, an event that will have added importance following the death of his son at the end of December.

Nick Bonner: The Englishman welcomed in North Korea

[CanKor Brain Trust member Nick Bonner was featured in a Yonhap News Agency article written by Andrew Salmon and published on 23 November 2011. Congratulations, Nick! --CanKor]

Bonner with Hong Yong-hui, the star of the film "Flower Girl," at the Pyongyang International Film Festival 2008. (Courtesy of Nick Bonner)

When it comes to jobs that raise eyebrows, Nick Bonner’s line of work is up there with crocodile wrestler and organ procurer. As the founder and director of Koryo Tours, the 50-year-old Englishman makes a living guiding tourists into the world’s most isolated state — North Korea.

“I wouldn’t do it if I didn’t enjoy it and if I didn’t love the people,” he said. “If I wanted the easy option, I would be doing tours to Hawaii.”

Bonner’s life path was not paved in advance. Having studied landscape architecture in the U.K., he planned to be a countryside ranger. But a visit to Beijing in 1993 at the invitation of his friend Josh Green, leading to a friendship with a North Korean, changed his future.

“We played (football) with him and became mates, and he was going back to North Korea to work for the tourism board,” Bonner recalls. “He said, ‘We need Western tourists. Do you want to come?’”

Green and Bonner gathered a group of eight pals and entered the Hermit Kingdom.  ”It was an eye-opener,” said Bonner, who was drawn to both Pyongyang’s cityscape and its inhabitants. (The latter is something visitors to the North often remark upon — the unsophisticated, old-fashioned charm of the populace.)

Sensing opportunity, Green and Bonner founded Beijing-based Koryo Tours that year. Although their Pyongyang contact greased bureaucratic skids, business was slow, so Green and Bonner decided to open “Poachers,” Beijing’s first live music nightclub. Green then departed, leaving Bonner as the sole operator of Koryo.

How a secret group transfers letters between the two Koreas in 2 days

[The following article appeared in English Donga ILBO, 22 October 2011]

Tumen River, DPRK

A secret group arranges reunions of separated families in South and North Korea. Reunions are generally made by bringing North Koreans across the North`s border with China for meetings with their South Korean relatives, who wait for them there.

In these cases, the North Koreans reportedly cross the border by promising to “return to the North without fail.” The group also on rare occasion helps South Korean prisoners of war and North Koreans seeking to defect to flee the country.

The leader of the group, identified only by his surname Shim, said, “At one point, there were as many as 12 scattered sub-organizations under our council, but the number of civilian exchanges has recently plunged. Now only six sub-organizations are operating with some 30 to 40 agents.”

Since its establishment in 1998, the council has held civilian exchanges between the Koreas behind the scenes, including exchange of correspondence, confirming the fates and whereabouts of separated families, and their reunions. Such matters the beyond the ability of Seoul and Pyongyang.

France opens cooperation office in Pyongyang

[In early October, Paris opened an office in Pyongyang to help French aid groups in North Korea, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said during his trip to Seoul at the end of October. Fillon said the suffering of North Koreans is behind the decision to open the cooperation office, noting that aiding the nongovernmental organizations is a top priority for the office. Currently, two French aid groups are working inside the country, under the umbrella of the European Union. Publicity about this move has been scarce. The following article by Philippe Rater, appeared in  AFP on 29 September 2011, prior to the opening. -- CanKor] 

Pyongyang - Photo by AFP

France is about to open an office in North Korea to develop cultural ties and to represent French aid groups working in the totalitarian state, the foreign ministry said on Thursday.

The office is to be headed by a French diplomat with Asian expertise, Olivier Vaysset, “given the needs that have been identified in the cultural and humanitarian domains,” ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said.

Vaysset’s mission does not represent France reopening diplomatic ties with North Korea. With Estonia, France is one of only two European Union powers to have no formal links with Pyongyang.

The French envoy will be the only expatriate staff member at the mission, which will be an office in a building currently used by British, German and Swedish officials. There are no plans to open a full embassy.

DPRK Business Monthly Volume II, No. 10

The DPRK Business Monthly, an international business report edited in Beijing, has been made available to CanKor readers by its editor, Paul White. Please check the November 2011 edition here: DPRK Business Monthly November 2011.

One of the two unfinished and abandoned KEDO 1000 MWe units at Kumho (Photo: KEDO)

Titles of articles found in this issue include:

• NK to Earn US$100 Million Annually from Pipeline
• DPRK Seeks More Economic Cooperation: Envoy
• Economy Focus of NK Policies
• Taiwan Buddhists Deliver NK Aid
• P’yang Autumn Commodities Fair Opens
• NK Building 100,000 Private Homes
• Work Progressing on North’s First ELWR

…plus a number of other items, including a selection of North Korean tours by various tour operators.

Please feel free to consult the full issue by clicking on this link: DPRK Business Monthly November 2011

Related articles

• DPRK Business Monthly Volume II, No. 9 (CanKor.ca)
• DPRK Business Monthly Volume II, No. 8 (CanKor.ca)
• DPRK Business Monthly Volume II, No. 7 (CanKor.ca)
• DPRK Business Monthly Volume II, No. 6 (CanKor.ca)